i wouldn't bet on it

last year cryptography professor matthew green made a bet with mikko hypponen that by the 15th of this month there would be a snowden doc released that showed that US AV companies collaborated with the NSA. he has since accepted that he lost the bet to mikko, but should he have?

i mentioned to matthew the case of mcafee being in bed with government malware writing firm hbgary and mikko chimed in that hbgary wasn't an AV company and being partners with them wasn't enough to win the bet. aside from the fact that this is the first time after all these years that i've seen a member of the AV industry publicly comment on the relationship between mcafee and hbgary (i guess managing matthew's perception of AV is more important than managing mine), something about mikko's response rang hollow.

one way to interpret the situation with hbgary is to view them as government contractors whom mcafee endorsed, advertised, and helped get their code onto the systems of mcafee's customers (hbgary makes a technology that integrates with mcafee's endpoint security product). that certainly would have given hbgary access to systems and organizations they might have had difficulty getting otherwise. i have no idea if that access was ever used in an offensive way, though, so this line of thought is a little iffy.

another way to interpret the situation is to directly contradict mikko and admit that hbgary is a member of the AV industry. after all, they make and sell technology that integrates into an endpoint security product. they may only be on the fringe of the industry, but what more do you have to do to be a member of the industry than make and sell technology for fighting malware? the fact that they also made malware for the government makes them essentially a US AV company that collaborated with the government in one of the worst ways possible.

i feel like this should be enough to have won matthew green the bet, at least in spirit, but the letter of the bet was apparently that a snowden doc would reveal it and the revelation about mcafee and hbgary actually predates snowden's leaks by a number of years. 

so, the question becomes are there any companies that happen to be members of the AV industry and also happen to have been fingered by a snowden leak? it turns out there was (at least) one. they were probably forgotten because they're not just an AV vendor, but AV vendor does happen to be one of the many hats that microsoft wears (plenty of security experts were even advising people to drop their paid-for AV in favour of microsoft's offering at one point in time), and microsoft was most certainly fingered by snowden docs. the instances where microsoft helped the government may not have involved their anti-malware department, but the fact remains that a company that is a member of the AV industry was revealed by snowden documents to have collaborated with the government.

i imagine mikko could find a way to argue this doesn't count either - i admit it's not air-tight - but given how close it meets both the spirit and (as i understand it) the letter of the bet, i think mikko should match the sum he had matthew pay to the EFF and pay it to an organization of matthew's choosing. i won't bet on that happening, though.